1. Overall market trend: High level narrow range fluctuations
In March 2026, the domestic molybdenum powder market as a whole showed an operating pattern of “high stability and narrow fluctuations”. The price of molybdenum powder remained at around 533000 yuan/ton throughout the month, an increase of about 17.26% compared to the beginning of the year. The market presents typical “supply-demand stalemate” characteristics – upstream suppliers have a strong willingness to raise prices, downstream buyers have a decreased ability to undertake, the game between buyers and sellers is fierce, and the actual transaction volume is limited.
2. Supporting factor analysis: dual support of cost and supply side
2.1 Strong support for raw material costs
The price trend of molybdenum powder is highly correlated with the prices of upstream molybdenum concentrate and molybdenum iron. In March, the price of molybdenum concentrate first stabilized and then fell, slightly dropping from about 4450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to the range of 4380-4400 yuan/ton at the end of March, with limited decline. The decrease in mining shipments and the slow growth rate of spot supply in the market have made suppliers more willing to raise prices.
From the perspective of annual increase, as of early March, the price of molybdenum concentrate has cumulatively risen by about 17.11% this year, providing solid cost support for downstream molybdenum powder prices.
2.2 Global Risk Avoidance Sentiment Rises
Since the beginning of 2026, global geopolitical risks have intensified, and market risk aversion has risen, driving up prices of oil, natural gas, precious metals, and most strategic metals. Molybdenum, as an important strategic metal, benefits from this macro background and enhances suppliers’ confidence in selling at a reasonable price.
2.3 Strictness of supply side control
Domestic molybdenum mines are limited in capacity release due to factors such as mining quota control and environmental inspections. At the same time, the international price of molybdenum oxide has stopped falling and stabilized, which has also boosted the sentiment of the domestic molybdenum raw material market.
3. Analysis of Suppressing Factors: Weakness on the Demand Side and Price Reduction in Purchasing
3.1 Downstream steel bidding prices decrease
The downstream demand for molybdenum powder is mainly transmitted to the steel industry through ferromolybdenum. In March, the bidding prices of steel mills decreased, which suppressed the molybdenum iron market. The price of molybdenum iron fell from about 285000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 278000 to 280000 yuan/ton at the end of the month.
The strong sentiment of steel enterprises to suppress prices has led to a loosening of confidence in intermediate smelting enterprises to raise prices, resulting in a slight decrease in quotations. This pressure is transmitted upstream, ultimately exerting a certain pressure on the price of molybdenum powder.
3.2 Decreased ability of the purchaser to undertake
Since the beginning of the year, the price of molybdenum powder has risen by more than 17%, with a significant increase. The price is at a historical high, which has led to a decrease in downstream buyers’ ability to undertake, and they generally maintain the strategy of “essential procurement”, with a strong sentiment of price suppression.
3.3 Weak international market
In March, the price of molybdenum iron in Europe showed a bearish trend, which suppressed the domestic market sentiment to some extent. The international molybdenum market is weak, which is not conducive to further rising domestic molybdenum prices.
4. Supply and demand pattern: deadlocked game, light trading volume
On the supply side: due to cost support and limited spot supply, suppliers have a lower willingness to lower prices and ship goods, and their quotations remain firm.
On the demand side: buyers are cautious and maintain a focus on essential procurement, resulting in a weak market trading atmosphere.
Transaction situation: The actual trading volume is relatively low, and the market has entered a consolidation window period of long short game.
5. Future prospects
Overall, in the short term, the domestic molybdenum powder market will maintain a stable and stable operating trend, with prices unlikely to experience significant fluctuations.